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The American authorities have been saving the financial system and economy so energetically with enormous monetary infusions that, recently, even the friendly European Union has pointed out that uncovered money pumped into the economy may lead to the unacceptable growth of the budget deficit and the acceleration of inflation. On the other hand, as our mathematical analysis of the inflation bubble indicates, such a scenario is a virtually inevitable consequence of the development of inflation according to its own internal laws.
On the one hand, this might look advantageous as regards the interests of the American administration though one may doubt whether those advantages are sufficiently secure and the respective policy is sufficiently farsighted. First of all, the USA devalues its debts through dollar inflation, as those debts are nominated mostly in dollars, and, hence, facilitates their repayment.
On the other hand, the extremely vigorous issuing of enormous amounts of money that continues for a number of years and involves numerous countries has led to an unprecedented growth of the world raw commodity prices. The abundance of the monetary mass against the background of high investment risks pushes investors to invest not in the production but rather in the acquisition through stocks and options of basic raw commodities.
The growing demand for mineral resources was evident in the recent months, though the declining value of money was as evident. The devaluation race may lead to trade wars, which may be interpreted as one of the main risks confronting the global economy. Against this background in recent years investors preferred to invest enormous sums in gold, insuring their savings against the risk of the devaluation of the principal currencies and first of all, the dollar and pushing up the gold prices. Up to May the gold price dynamics followed an explosive scenario see Fig.
Our earlier study Akaev et al. In recent months an analogous dynamics was observed with respect to the other precious metals but not only those metals.
For example, our analysis of palladium price series indicated that the palladium price bubble was supposed to collapse quite close to the gold one Akaev, Korotayev, Fomin In recent months one could also observe an explosive growth of the oil prices see Fig. Energy Information Administration database. In the months preceding May one could observe an especially explosive growth with respect to the prices of silver. The analysis that we performed in mid April through the approximation of the empirical data on silver prices in the recent months with a power-law function with accelerating log-periodic oscillation superimposed over it produced the following results see Fig.
In Fig. Our forecast turned out to be very accurate indeed. The silver bubble burst precisely on the 1st of May, see Fig. Table 1. Indeed, as regards the oil prices, since early May we seem to be observing now the formation of an oil price antibubble see Figs.
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Indeed, as our analysis of the respective time series including more recent data suggests, there are no grounds to exclude the possibility of one more substantial oscillation before the final collapse of the gold bubble see Fig. Note that the quasisingularity moment tC here equals 2,,, which corresponds to July 27 and suggests that the gold bubble should start collapsing before this date anyway. Hence some of the commodity price bubbles that were blown up in the recent months have already started collapsing, whereas others are likely to collapse in the forthcoming weeks.
Indeed, on the one hand, it is obvious that such a collapse leads to huge losses or even bankruptcies of many of the major participants of exchange games and their dependent firms and banks.
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Therefore, the immediate market reaction will be entirely negative. Negative impact on the market will be amplified by numerous publications in the media and business press, drawing analogies with the events of the early s and earlier similar events, as well as by losses of the shareholders of bankrupt companies.
The current instability of major world currencies and the most powerful world economies, unfortunately, does not preclude the escalation of a short-term downswing into the second wave of economic and financial crisis.
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It is also obvious that the decline of the oil and other energy resources prices could contribute very significantly to the acceleration of the world economic growth rates and the world economic recovery. The same goes for many other mineral resources whose prices has started to collapse recently, as this bears both the risk of the second wave of the world economic recession and opportunities that could stimulate the acceleration of the world industrial growth see, e.
Thus, in many respects the World System has just entered an actual bifurcation zone that implies both the risks of the second wave of the world recession and the possibilities to achieve a steady world economic recovery and serious acceleration of the world economic growth rates. As in any bifurcation point very much will depend on the actions of the main relevant actors.
References Akaev A. Akaev A. On the reasons and possible consequences of the second wave of the global crisis in Russian.
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Abylgaziev, I. Moscow: Moscow University Press. Fomin A. Friedman M. A Monetary History of the United States, — Johansen A. Critical Crashes. Predicting financial crashes using discrete scale invariance. Discrete scaling in earthquake pre-cursory phenomena: Evidence in the Kobe earthquake, Japan.
Korotayev A. Revista Interdisciplinar 13 : — Middle East Studies. Sornette D. Why stock markets crash: critical events in complex financial systems.